Aikedi (600933) annual report comment: the rapid growth of the industry’s lightweight trend is the main focus

Aikedi (600933) annual report comment: the rapid growth of the industry’s lightweight trend is the main focus

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report: gradually realized revenue 25.

$ 1.5 billion.

31%, net profit attributable to mothers4.

68 ppm, an increase of 0 in ten years.

57%, corresponding to EPS.

55 yuan / share.

Key points of investment: Revenue maintains rapid growth, rapid increase in costs and expenses cause net interest rate to drop 1) 2018 revenue maintains rapid growth; net profit growth significantly exceeds the income side, Q4 negative growth (attributed to -11.

42%).

Initial gross margin / net margin decreased by 5.

77/2.

The 89 singles are basically: decrease due to increased labor costs (increased and increased cash paid to employees and paid for employees in 2018).

49%) and the increase in depreciation and amortization costs due to the incomplete release of solidification and replenishment of construction in progress (continuous growth of 43.

57%); decrease, management expenses and research and development expenses continue to maintain rapid growth, the growth rate reached 30.

27% / 77.

17%, both significantly higher than revenue growth.

2) The company’s main income comes from abroad, and the proportion of foreign income in 2018 reached 65.

95%, an increase of 3 per year.

3 units.

The fluctuation of the exchange rate of the US dollar caused the company to gradually realize exchange gains of 34.11 million yuan (at the same time, exchange loss losses of 17.92 million yuan).

3) From the perspective of mold development models, it was 3 at the end of 2018.

380,000 yuan, with the beginning of the year 3.

52 billion US dollars fell slightly, of which, the current period increased by 1.

30 trillion, the order is expected to be abnormal.

Benefiting from the industry’s lightweight trend, the automotive aluminum alloy market has greatly responded to energy conservation and emission reductions. Major countries in the world have tightened automotive fuel emission standards. While developing new energy vehicles, promoting traditional energy-saving technologies such as lightweight vehicles is also an important approach.One.

Automotive aluminum alloy precision die-casting has overlapped in the automotive parts industry due to its light weight and cost-effective advantages. In recent years, aluminum alloy die-casting has accounted for about 80% of the internal automotive die-casting consumption.

At present, the development of the automotive aluminum alloy die casting market benefits from the continuous growth of automobile production and sales, replacement, and benefits from lightweight demand leading to an increase in the amount of aluminum used in bicycles.

According to the company’s prospectus, the average amount of aluminum used in Chinese cars is currently 105Kg / vehicle, with a lot of room for improvement in the light of Europe and the United States.

According to estimates, in the future, the domestic / global automotive aluminum alloy market size will reach 2000/6400 ppm, and the market space is large. In the future, the company is expected to fully benefit from the industry’s lightweight trend.

Orders are normal, capacity is released, lean management improves efficiency, and the company’s growth potential breaks through 1) Since the company’s customers are mainly international parts giants such as Valeo, Bosch, Magna, and Denki, its stable and increasing orders are for the companySustained and rapid growth provides important impetus.

Judging from the company’s orders in recent years, we expect that the company’s current orders are still normal, which will strongly support the company’s future growth.

2) The company’s total additional capacity of IPO 北京桑拿洗浴保健 investment projects is 130 million pieces, which is expected to solve the company’s tight capacity utilization situation and meet customers’ growing order demands.

At present, the expansion and expansion project of automotive precision die-casting parts has been significantly increased, thus achieving 9116 benefits.

510,000 yuan, the automobile wiper system parts construction project realized benefits of 2502.

350,000 yuan.

With the successive launch of the raised projects, we expect the company’s future growth to be supported.

3) We believe that under the background of the current low-speed growth of the auto market and weak bargaining power of parts, tapping the potential of internal management to improve management efficiency and production efficiency is the best way for traditional parts companies to improve their profitability and enhance their overall competitiveness.

Compared with the major domestic and foreign peers, the company’s current production and management efficiency, differences in business scale, conversion of the company’s digital information, automation, and intelligent work are actively promoted. In the future, the company’s asset turnover rate will be earlier than the per capita index.To improve the company’s profitability and reduce the company’s overall competitiveness.

Considering the company’s continuous and stable order acquisition capability, the medium and long-term growth potential is good. Earnings forecast and maintain “overweight” rating We expect the company’s EPS to be 0 in 2019-2021.

60/0.

67/0.

81 yuan / share, corresponding to PE is 17/15/12 times, maintaining the “overweight” rating.

Risk warning: trade friction risks; orders and revenue growth exceed expectations; cost and cost growth exceed expectations; raw material price increases exceed expectations; quality improvement and efficiency improvements exceed expectations