I miss you (002582): 3Q19 revenue accelerates growth and pays attention to 4Q19 peak season catalyst

I miss you (002582): 3Q19 revenue accelerates growth and pays attention to 4Q19 peak 杭州桑拿 season catalyst

The performance review maintained that the industry outperformed the industry’s 3Q19 revenue better than market expectations, and the profit basically met market expectations. The company announced its 2019 third quarter results: from January to September, it achieved revenue 40.

400 million (+13.

4%), net profit attributable to mother 1.

300 million (+21.

2%); single quarter revenue in the third quarter of 19 +26.

4%, better than market expectations, single-quarter net profit of 3.65 million yuan, every + 151%, single-quarter net profit attributable to the mother 3.83 million yuan, each time -13.

7%, the main reason is that due to the decrease in the number of minority shareholders’ equity due to a decrease in the base, the deviation in profit fluctuations is biased. We believe that the profit 南京夜网论坛 performance is basically within market expectations.

  Development Trend 3Q19’s revenue accelerates and expects Baicaowei to make a major contribution.

The company’s 3Q19 revenue increased by 26.

4%, a significant increase from 2Q19 (12% increase). We believe that the main reason is that Baicao has accelerated growth. According to the Taobao data, Baicao has increased by about 50% to 3Q19. If the data deviation and tax deduction are excluded, we judge Baicao.The growth rate of the clarity should be above 35%, which benefits from the increase in market investment and shows a significant acceleration.

We think that your 3Q19 revenue will continue to improve compared with 2Q19, but it will still be subject to the substitution of the supermarket business and the revenue scale will decrease. We believe that the channel of the headquarters is still in the stage of active adjustment.

Looking ahead, we are optimistic that the company’s 4Q19 as a traditional sales season and the Spring Festival will catalyze the rapid growth of revenue, and we are also optimistic that next year we will benefit from the low base pressure this year and the rapid expansion of the market.

  The decline in gross profit margin in the third quarter of 1919 is expected to be due to the adjustment of the headquarter, and the upgrade trend of Baicao flavor products will continue.

  The company’s gross profit margin in 3Q19 was 25.

9%, -2 ppt a year, -1 MoM.

1ppt, we believe that the main reason is that the department adjusts its products and channels. According to a grassroots survey, the department is shifting from high-end gift boxes to mass leisure products. At the same time, distribution channels increase purchase and gift promotion activities, so the overall gross profit margin has formed a downward trend.pressure.

At the same time, we judge that the upgrade trend of Baicao product structure continues, which will have a positive impact on the gross profit margin for the next two years.

  The sales expense ratio in the third quarter of 19 is still at a high level, and it is expected that the synergies brought by the subsequent integration will be released.

  In the third quarter of 19, the sales expense budget was 22%, +0 for the whole year.

8ppt, -3.

2ppt, we think the main reason is that the company increased marketing costs.

We look forward to the accelerated integration of warehousing and logistics, supply chain collaboration, streamlined staffing, and information management in the future. Therefore, the expected change in the level of expenditure and expenses is under control and basically stable.

We believe that the company’s previous net profit attributable to mothers increased by 23.

The 8% target can be achieved.

  Earnings forecasts and projections are better than expected in 3Q19. We have raised our 2019 revenue forecast by 1%. Considering market expansion, we have lowered our 2019 EPS forecast by 1.

7% to 0.

31 yuan; due to optimistic about the income growth trend next year, raise the income forecast for next year.

7%, up 4 EPS forecast.

2% to 0.

38 yuan.

  Maintain target price of 12.

35 yuan, corresponding to 40/33 times P / E in 2019/2020. Maintain outperform industry rating. The current price corresponds to 28/23 times P / E in 2019/2020, with 41% upside.

  Risks Raw materials fluctuate, industry demand changes, industry competition intensifies, and food safety risks.